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俄计划在2036年前建成月球发电站

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导致油轮避险和保险费用飙升，布伦特油价继续上涨10-20美元/桶，油价最高到90-100美元/桶。原油、天然气能源成本提高，炼化、深加工装置的加工利润压缩，化工品被动跟涨。　　2．情景二：战争全面升级，霍尔木兹海峡完全封锁：海峡完全关闭，参考俄乌战争时期，油价冲击至120-150美元/桶甚至更高。原料供应出现缺口，引发炼厂降负荷、停产进而导致下游深加工装置的生产停滞。　　数据来源：wind，大地

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